Vaata esmaspäev, 30 juuni 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Jun 30 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 181 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 30 Jun 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity was
characterized by occasional C-class flares. Most of these were from
Region 396 (S06W54). Region 397 (N11E40) is the largest, most
complex group on the disk but only produced two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. New Regions 398 (N04E66) and 399 (N15E52)
were assigned today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but with a chance for an isolated M-class event sometime
during the next three days. Regions 396 and 397 are the most likely
sources for energetic flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. The disturbance is due to a high speed
solar wind stream associated with a well-positioned solar coronal
hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during
the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to slightly active for the next 24 hours.
The high speed wind stream is expected to slowly subside.
Predominantly unsettled levels should prevail during the second and
third days, but there will be a chance for isolated active periods,
especially at the higher latitudes.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 01 Julkuni 03 Jul
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 30 Jun 128 Prognoositud 01 Jul-03 Jul 130/130/135 90 päeva keskmine 30 Jun 124
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 29 Jun 014/026 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 30 Jun 025/020 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 015/020-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 01 Jul kuni 03 Jul
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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