Vaata kolmapäev, 25 juuni 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Jun 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 176 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Jun 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. The period was highlighted by a
very long duration C3.7 X-ray flare and CME that appears to have
originated from behind the NE limb. The likely source region of this
event is old Region 375 (N12, L=026) which was very large and
complex during its last transit of the visible disk. It is due to
make its return on the visible disk late on day two. Region 391
(N14W09) continues to grow, but after the burst of minor C-class
flares yesterday, it could only yield minor plage fluctuations this
period. No other noteworthy activity was observed.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Increased activity is possible on days two and three
with the return of old Region 375.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A high speed coronal hole
stream continues with solar wind speed ranging from 520 to 620 km/s.
The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels through day two. A
large southern coronal hole with a transequatorial extension will
move into a geoeffective position by day three; consequently,
occasional minor storm conditions are expected by the end of the
period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Junkuni 28 Jun
| Klass M | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Klass X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 Jun 116 Prognoositud 26 Jun-28 Jun 115/120/130 90 päeva keskmine 25 Jun 125
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Jun 020/031 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 25 Jun 015/015 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 012/015-012/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Jun kuni 28 Jun
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 35% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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