Vaata teisipäev, 22 aprill 2003 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 112 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Apr 2003

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 338 (N18W20) continued to develop in both size and magnetic complexity. It was responsible for most of the C-class activity this period, including a C4/Sf flare at 22/2011Z. There were some indications that a weak delta configuration was developing in this region. A Type II (960 km/s) radio sweep was detected at 22/0716Z, associated with a CME off the NE limb. A CME was also detected earlier in the period, associated with a B-class flare in Region 336 (N14E10). The largest region on the disk - Region 337 (S14E29), exhibited some decay and simplification over the past 24 hours. These CMEs do not appear to be Earthward directed. Minor C-class activity was observed in Regions 337 (S14E29), and 339 (N16W71). New Region 342 (N18W07) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a chance for a low level M-class flare from Region 337 or Region 338.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. A high speed solar wind stream that began early on 21 April continues. Solar wind speeds exceeded 600 km/s early in the period, but gradually declined to below 550 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The most disturbed periods are expected late on day one through day two due to the anticipated arrival of a CME associated with the M2/1n flare on 21/1307Z. A return to predominantly unsettled conditions is expected on day three with occasional active periods possible.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Aprkuni 25 Apr
Klass M25%25%25%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       22 Apr 132
  Prognoositud   23 Apr-25 Apr  140/145/145
  90 päeva keskmine        22 Apr 126
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Apr  012/021
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  015/022
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  020/030-020/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Apr kuni 25 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%40%30%
Väike torm20%20%10%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne50%50%40%
Väike torm30%30%15%
Suur-tõsine torm15%15%05%

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