Vaata reede, 18 aprill 2003 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2003 Apr 18 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 108 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 Apr 2003IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels. There were
several minor C-class events during the last 24 hours with a single
M1.1 from Region 337 (S12E74) at 1958 UTC. A 13 degree disappearing
solar filament was observed early in the period near Region 335
(S25E21). There was a small coronal mass ejection associated with
that filament, but it was not earth-directed.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the entire period. Region 337 (S12E74)
is just coming on to the visible disk, and appears in solar x-ray
imagery to be a potentially active region.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels with an
isolated quiet period from 0300 UTC to 0600 UTC. The coronal hole
induced high speed solar wind stream continues. The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels as the current disturbance
continues to transition out of geoeffective range. Continued
unsettled levels are expected through day two, with a further
decrease to mostly quiet levels on day three.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 Aprkuni 21 Apr
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 18 Apr 108 Prognoositud 19 Apr-21 Apr 110/110/115 90 päeva keskmine 18 Apr 127
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 17 Apr 020/030 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 18 Apr 018/019 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 012/015-010/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 Apr kuni 21 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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