Vaata reede, 22 november 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Nov 22 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 326 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Nov 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 198 (S18W12)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C3.4/Sf flare occurring
at 22/1542 UTC. Region has shown decay this period as penumbral
coverage has decreased and gamma portion of the magnetic field has
become less discernable, although it is still intact. Region 201
(S16W22) showed some growth today adding several umbra to group's
total spot count. No new spot groups were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 198 has the potential to produce M-class flare
activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
transequatorial coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere
continues to elevate the high speed solar wind (today's approximate
average speed of 625 km/s). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosychronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated minor storm
conditions (mostly at high latitudes) are possible through day one
as the magnetosphere continues to be under the influence of the high
speed solar wind. Days two and three should return to quiet to
unsettled conditions as the high speed stream wanes. The greater
the 2 MeV electron flux at GOES should reach daily moderate to high
levels throughout the forecast period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Novkuni 25 Nov
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 Nov 149 Prognoositud 23 Nov-25 Nov 150/155/165 90 päeva keskmine 22 Nov 173
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Nov 022/050 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 22 Nov 020/025 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Nov kuni 25 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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