Vaata neljapäev, 21 november 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Nov 21 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 325 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 21 Nov 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Multiple C-class
flares were observed today, all from Region 198 (S18E02). The
largest flare was a C6.6/Sf that occurred at 21/1104 UTC. Magnetic
complexity and white-light spot coverage went mostly unchanged
today. Region 195 (S17W24) continues to undergo a slow but steady
decay. A small cluster of umbra materialized today between the two
previously mentioned regions becoming newly numbered Region 201
(S16W09).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected at low to
moderate levels. Region 198 remains capable of producing M-class
flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at active to minor storm
levels. Isolated major storm conditions were seen at all latitudes
and a period of severe storm levels were observed at high latitudes
between 21/0600 to 0900 UTC. Elevated geomagnetic activity is in
response to a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels. Isolated major
storm to severe storm conditions (mostly at high latitudes) are
possible through day one. A steady return to quiet to unsettled
conditions should occur during the remainder of the forecast period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit should
reach moderate to high levels by day three.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 22 Novkuni 24 Nov
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 21 Nov 151 Prognoositud 22 Nov-24 Nov 150/150/155 90 päeva keskmine 21 Nov 173
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 20 Nov 013/017 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 21 Nov 035/055 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 025/035-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 22 Nov kuni 24 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 35% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
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