Vaata reede, 18 oktoober 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Oct 18 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 291 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 18 Oct 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 162 (N25E71) produced the majority of the optically observed flare activity today, the largest was a C4/Sf event at 18/1927 UTC. The large cluster of spots seen in white-light appears to be all one region (based on current available magnetic data) although the regions proximity to the limb hinders any certainty at this time. Region 149 (N14W46) produced only minor B and C-class flares today. Magnetic analysis shows the return of the weak gamma magnetic structure that once again has become apparent. No other significant changes were seen in the region since yesterday. Region 158 (S08W02) produced a single optically correlated flare, a C1/Sf at 18/0703 UTC. This region retains a beta-gamma magnetic structure and underwent little change during the period. Newly numbered region 163 (S21W10) was assigned today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 162 may have the potential of producing isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 17-2100Z kuni 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of active conditions between 18/1500-1800 UTC due in part to the elevated solar wind speeds (550-650 km/s). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of isolated active conditions on days one and two due to the elevated solar wind speeds and a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 19 Octkuni 21 Oct
Klass M40%40%40%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       18 Oct 173
  Prognoositud   19 Oct-21 Oct  175/175/180
  90 päeva keskmine        18 Oct 182
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 17 Oct  008/011
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  008/012-010/012-006/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 19 Oct kuni 21 Oct
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%20%15%
Väike torm05%05%01%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%25%20%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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