Vaata pühapäev, 7 juuli 2002 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jul 07 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 188 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Jul 2002

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. A long duration M1.0 flare occurred during 07/1114-1143-1317 UTC. Imagery from SOHO/LASCO revealed a fast partial halo CME off the southwest limb in association with this event, possibly from old Region 17 (S18, L=235) behind the west limb. This event also caused an enhancement in energetic protons (see section IIA below). Other activity included a multi-peak C-class event with maximum flux of C3.5 at 07/0401 UTC. H-alpha imagery from the IPS Culgoora observatory revealed an active prominence on the southwest limb as well as plage brightening in Region 19 (S19W32) in association with this event. Another event of interest occurred at about 07/1700 UTC, with a large, 35-degree filament eruption centered near N11W49, which also produced a CME visible in SOHO/LASCO imagery. New Region 27 (S15E26) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 19 remains a potential source of M-class flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled, with one isolated active period observed at Boulder during 07/1500-1800 UTC. Coronal hole effects appeared to wane throughout the day. A 10 MeV proton event began at 07/1830 UTC, due to enhanced flux following the LDE discussed in section 1A above, and remains in progress. Maximum flux observed thus far was 22 pfu at 07/1955 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible during the next 3 days, in response to earlier CME activity from Region 19 as well as from the filament eruption and other flare activity observed today.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Julkuni 10 Jul
Klass M35%30%30%
Klass X01%01%01%
Prooton35%01%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       07 Jul 137
  Prognoositud   08 Jul-10 Jul  132/130/130
  90 päeva keskmine        07 Jul 168
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Jul  018/023
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 07 Jul  011/013
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  015/015-012/012-012/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Jul kuni 10 Jul
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%25%25%
Väike torm10%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%30%25%
Väike torm15%15%15%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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