Vaata pühapäev, 24 märts 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Mar 24 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 083 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 Mar 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9876
(S15E18) produced a long-duration C5/Sf flare at 24/1754 UTC. This
region showed a minor spot increase near its leader spots, but
showed an overall decrease in area due to a decrease in penumbral
coverage in its trailer spots. It remained moderately complex with
mixed polarities within its trailer portion. Region 9881 (S03W34)
showed minor spot growth and produced a C4/Sf flare at 24/2036 UTC.
Spot growth was also observed in Region 9880 (N07W08), but it
produced no optical flares. Region 9878 (N09E28) retained moderate
magnetic complexity, but showed no significant changes.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There's a fair chance for isolated,
low-level M-class activity during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity increased to active to major storm levels
during 24/0200 - 1200 UTC. Field activity decreased to active to
minor storm levels during 24/1200 - 1800 UTC, then decreased to
mostly unsettled levels for the rest of the period. The increase in
activity coincided with a period of sustained southward IMF Bz
(maximum southerly deflections to minus 12 nT (GSM), as measured by
NASA's ACE spacecraft). The greater than 10 MeV proton event that
began at 22/2020 UTC ended at 23/2030 UTC. The peak flux for this
event was 16 pfu at 23/1320 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 25 March. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 Markuni 27 Mar
| Klass M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 Mar 175 Prognoositud 25 Mar-27 Mar 170/165/165 90 päeva keskmine 24 Mar 210
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 24 Mar 035/050 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 015/020-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 Mar kuni 27 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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