Vaata kolmapäev, 20 veebruar 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Feb 20 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 051 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 20 Feb 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 9825
(N16W81) produced an impulsive M5/1n flare at 20/0612 UT associated
with Type II and IV radio sweeps and an Earth-directed halo coronal
mass ejection (CME). Region 9825 also produced an impulsive M4 flare
at 20/0251 UT associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps and an
impulsive M4 at 20/0959 UT. This activity appeared to coincide with
the rapid emergence of opposite-polarity flux northwest of the
leader spots, but detailed analysis was hampered by its proximity to
the west limb. Region 9830 (S16W06) remained the largest and most
magnetically complex sunspot group on the disk as multiple magnetic
delta configurations persisted within its leader spots. It produced
an impulsive C9/1n flare at 20/1626 UT associated with minor
discrete radio emission. New Region 9835 (S08W61) produced an
impulsive M3/Sf flare at 20/1711 UT. New Regions 9836 (S02W26) and
9837 (N07E70) were also numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. There is a
chance for isolated major flare activity from Region 9825 (which
will cross the west limb on 21 February) and Region 9830.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A brief
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit began at
20/0730 UT, reached a maximum of 13.5 PFU at 20/0755 UT, and ended
at 20/0800 UT. This proton event was likely associated with the
M5/1n flare at 20/0612 UT from Region 9825.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 21- 22 February.
Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm
levels on 23 February due to an expected CME passage associated with
today's M5/1n flare. There will be a slight chance for a proton
flare during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 21 Febkuni 23 Feb
| Klass M | 75% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 20 Feb 193 Prognoositud 21 Feb-23 Feb 200/205/205 90 päeva keskmine 20 Feb 222
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 19 Feb 004/004 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 20 Feb 010/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 007/008-012/015-016/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 21 Feb kuni 23 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 30% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 35% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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