Vaata kolmapäev, 13 veebruar 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Feb 13 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 044 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 Feb 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There were several C-class
events during the past 24 hours; most of these were from Region 9825
(N14E16). The largest event was a C7/1n from 9825 at 0712 UTC.
Region 9825 has grown steadily and is now the largest group on the
disk. Region 9821 (S13W53) is now the second largest region but is
decaying and did not produce any flare activity. A CME was observed
in C2 from the southeast limb, beginning at 2030 UTC: the CME does
not appear to be earthward directed.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class
event, with Region 9825 being the main threat. There is a very
slight chance for a major flare or a proton producing flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes were at moderate levels for a significant
fraction of the day.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on the third day.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 Febkuni 16 Feb
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 Feb 204 Prognoositud 14 Feb-16 Feb 210/210/205 90 päeva keskmine 13 Feb 222
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 12 Feb 005/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 13 Feb 012/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 010/010-010/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 Feb kuni 16 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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