Vaata teisipäev, 22 jaanuar 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jan 22 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 022 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 Jan 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9791 (S02W46) produced an impulsive M1/1n flare at 22/0900 UTC. The
sunspot group appears to have simplified somewhat since the flare
occurred, reducing penumbral coverage to about half of what was
observed yesterday. Region 9789 (N18W42) produced an impulsive
C5/Sf flare at 22/1313 UTC and has also been in decay since flare
occurrence. One event of note, an optically uncorrelated near long
duration C1 flare occurred at 22/0758 UTC. This flare had an
associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
1017 km/s. LASCO imagery doesn't indicate earth directed CME
activity with any of today's events. Regions 9787 (S06E19) and 9788
(N18E00) have shown growth over the period as both regions have
acquired gamma classification to their magnetic structures. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9787 and 9788 have the potential of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 Jankuni 25 Jan
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 Jan 229 Prognoositud 23 Jan-25 Jan 235/235/235 90 päeva keskmine 22 Jan 223
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 21 Jan 007/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 22 Jan 006/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 006/008-006/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 Jan kuni 25 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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