Vaata neljapäev, 12 aprill 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Apr 12 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 102 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Apr 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9415 (S22W43) produced
an X2 flare at 12/1028 UTC. This flare was not optically correlated
at the peak time of the event, however EIT imagery and later optical
flare observations have associated this flare with Region 9415. This
event was accompanied by Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 1200 sfu 10
cm radio burst, and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). Region
9415 also produced an M1/1n event at 12/0304 UTC. Several other
regions developed into more complex sunspot classification groups,
but showed very little activity during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 could possibly produce another
major flare during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels.
The geomagnetic field continued to be disturbed early in the period
due to CME shock arrivals at earth on 11 April. The storm subsided
to unsettled conditions toward the end of the period. The solar
radiation storm that was in progress for the last two days has been
extended by protons produced from today's X2 event. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was at high levels all period. The greater than
100 MeV protons reached threshold levels at 12/1305 UTC and remained
at or above threshold levels for the remainder of the period. A
polar cap absorption (PCA) event was in effect for most of the
period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the first part of the period
until the arrival of an earth directed CME from the M2/1f event that
occurred on 11/1326 UTC. This CME should arrive at earth sometime
late on 13 April or early 14 April UTC. A second CME from today's X2
event should arrive at earth late on 14 April or early 15 April UTC.
Both arrivals should produce active to major storm levels with brief
severe storm levels at high latitudes possible. The greater than 10
MeV proton event is expected to continue through most of the period.
The PCA event is expected to end during the latter half of the
period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Aprkuni 15 Apr
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Prooton | 80% | 60% | 25% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 12 Apr 149 Prognoositud 13 Apr-15 Apr 150/145/140 90 päeva keskmine 12 Apr 167
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Apr 069/060 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 12 Apr 045/050 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 040/020-050/050-025/040
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Apr kuni 15 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 40% | 45% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 40% | 20% |
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