Vaata arhiivi neljapäev, 12 aprill 2001

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Apr 12 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 102 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Apr 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9415 (S22W43) produced an X2 flare at 12/1028 UTC. This flare was not optically correlated at the peak time of the event, however EIT imagery and later optical flare observations have associated this flare with Region 9415. This event was accompanied by Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 1200 sfu 10 cm radio burst, and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). Region 9415 also produced an M1/1n event at 12/0304 UTC. Several other regions developed into more complex sunspot classification groups, but showed very little activity during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9415 could possibly produce another major flare during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels. The geomagnetic field continued to be disturbed early in the period due to CME shock arrivals at earth on 11 April. The storm subsided to unsettled conditions toward the end of the period. The solar radiation storm that was in progress for the last two days has been extended by protons produced from today's X2 event. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at high levels all period. The greater than 100 MeV protons reached threshold levels at 12/1305 UTC and remained at or above threshold levels for the remainder of the period. A polar cap absorption (PCA) event was in effect for most of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active for the first part of the period until the arrival of an earth directed CME from the M2/1f event that occurred on 11/1326 UTC. This CME should arrive at earth sometime late on 13 April or early 14 April UTC. A second CME from today's X2 event should arrive at earth late on 14 April or early 15 April UTC. Both arrivals should produce active to major storm levels with brief severe storm levels at high latitudes possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through most of the period. The PCA event is expected to end during the latter half of the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Aprkuni 15 Apr
Klass M80%80%80%
Klass X25%25%25%
Prooton80%60%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       12 Apr 149
  Prognoositud   13 Apr-15 Apr  150/145/140
  90 päeva keskmine        12 Apr 167
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Apr  069/060
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 12 Apr  045/050
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr  040/020-050/050-025/040
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Apr kuni 15 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne15%15%35%
Väike torm20%25%15%
Suur-tõsine torm40%45%10%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne35%25%40%
Väike torm25%30%25%
Suur-tõsine torm15%40%20%

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