Vaata pühapäev, 12 november 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Nov 12 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 317 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 Nov 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Region 9227 (S11W02) produced today's largest event, a C4/1f flare
at 1426Z. This group continues to show slow growth and is currently
the largest group on the disk at 180 millionths. The other active
regions on the disk were stable and quiet.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a slight chance for an isolated M-class
event.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Unsettled
to active levels prevailed for most of the period, but there was a 3
hour minor storm interval from 0300-0600Z. Solar wind observations
indicate the presence of a high speed stream associated with a
favorably positioned, transequatorial coronal hole. The greater than
10 MeV proton event continued to show flux levels above threshold
throughout the period with a very slow decline. The current greater
than 10 MeV flux at 12/2100Z observed by GOES-8 was 12.4 pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. A decline
to mostly unsettled is expected during the second and third days.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end before the
end of 12 November (UTC time).
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 Novkuni 15 Nov
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 50% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 12 Nov 147 Prognoositud 13 Nov-15 Nov 145/140/140 90 päeva keskmine 12 Nov 172
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 11 Nov 011/012 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 12 Nov 021/023 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 015/018-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 Nov kuni 15 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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