Vaata arhiivi neljapäev, 9 november 2000

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Nov 09 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 314 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Nov 2000

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels. An M7 X-ray flare occurred at 08/2328 UTC. Regions 9218 (N20W72), 9213 (N04W92), and 9212 (N10W86) produced optical flares during the M7, thereby making a single-point source determination difficult. This event was accompanied by a halo CME, Type IV radio sweep, and a 710 sfu Tenflare. Optically uncorrelated M1 X-ray flares occurred at 09/0314 UTC and 09/0610 UTC. Region 9221 (S14E06) produced an M1/Sf flare at 09/1613 UTC associated with an 8-degree filament disappearance. New Region 9228 (N20E29) was numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares will be possible during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Active conditions occurred during the 09/1500 - 1800 UTC period. Proton events at greater than 100 MeV and greater than 10 MeV were associated with the M7 flare mentioned above. The greater than 100 MeV event began at 08/2355 UTC and reached a maximum of 347 pfu at 09/0350 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event began at 08/2350 UTC and reached a (preliminary) peak of 13,300 pfu at 09/1600 UTC. The proton event was in progress as the period ended. A polar cap absorption event was associated with the proton event. Peak absorption was estimated to be 33 dB at 09/1640 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels during the first day. Activity is expected to increase to active to major storm levels during the remainder of the period due to an expected CME passage associated with the M7 event mentioned above. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end during the first day, but the greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through the period. The polar cap absortion event is expected to continue through the period as well.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Novkuni 12 Nov
Klass M50%45%40%
Klass X10%10%05%
Prooton99%99%90%
PCAFin progress
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       09 Nov 166
  Prognoositud   10 Nov-12 Nov  160/155/150
  90 päeva keskmine        09 Nov 173
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Nov  014/015
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 09 Nov  012/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  015/015-030/050-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Nov kuni 12 Nov
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%20%40%
Väike torm10%40%20%
Suur-tõsine torm05%25%15%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%20%40%
Väike torm15%25%20%
Suur-tõsine torm05%40%20%

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