Vaata laupäev, 22 juuli 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Jul 22 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 204 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 JUL 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. THE MOST ENERGETIC
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS AN M3 CLASS EVENT BEGINNING AT 22/1117Z IN
REGION 9085 (N14W63). THE EVENT WAS COMPARATIVELY LONG LIVED AND
ACCOMPANIED BY TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION. FLARES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED IN REGIONS 9087 (S12W39), 9090 (N12W07), AND 9095 (N21W55).
THE MOST COMPLEX REGIONS ARE 9087 (S12W39), A GAMMA-DELTA, REGION
9090 (N12W07), A BETA-GAMMA, AND 9097 (N06E25), A BETA-GAMMA. NEW
REGIONS HAVE APPEARED AND BEEN NUMBERED AS 9100 (S31E58) AND 9101
(S16E68). A LONG, NARROW NEGATIVE-POLARITY CORONAL HOLE EXTENDS
FROM APPROXIMATELY W35 TO E65 AND BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY N30 TO N45
DEGREES.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE LEVELS. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV
PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 22/1320Z AND REACHED A MAXIMUM FLUX OF 17 PFU
AT 22/1405Z. FLUX LEVELS REMAINED NEAR 10 PFU AT FORECAST ISSUE
TIME. THE PROTON EVENT APPEARED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE AT
22/1117Z. AN ASSOCIATED MINOR ENHANCEMENT OF PROTONS WITH ENERGY
GREATER THAN 100 MEV BEGAN AT ABOUT 22/1200Z. THE GREATER THAN 100
MEV INCREASE DID NOT MEET SEC EVENT CRITERIA AND HAD RETURNED TO
NEAR-BACKGROUND LEVELS BY 22/1900Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 JULkuni 25 JUL
| Klass M | 85% | 80% | 75% |
| Klass X | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Prooton | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 JUL 251 Prognoositud 23 JUL-25 JUL 245/235/230 90 päeva keskmine 22 JUL 189
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUL 006/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUL 012/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUL-25 JUL 020/025-020/025-012/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 JUL kuni 25 JUL
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 28% | 28% | 28% |
| Väike torm | 13% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 06% | 06% | 06% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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