Vaata esmaspäev, 26 juuni 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Jun 26 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 178 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 JUN 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. OCCASIONAL,
MOSTLY LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED, MOST OF WHICH WERE
PRODUCED BY REGION 9054 (N12W18). THIS REGION IS A MEDIUM-SIZED,
MIXED-POLARITY (BETA-GAMMA) GROUP THAT HAS GRADUALLY DEVELOPED
DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS. IT WAS THE LIKELY SOURCE (BASED ON
SOHO/EIT IMAGES) FOR A C4 X-RAY FLARE AT 26/0157Z ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (EST. SHOCK VELOCITY 800 KM/SEC) AND A
POSSIBLE PARTIAL-HALO CME. REGIONS 9046 (N20W75) AND 9049 (N16W09)
DECAYED SLIGHTLY, WHILE THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NEW
REGION 9063 (N24E41) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES ARE EXPECTED.
REGION 9054 APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY INCREASED TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS
WITH BRIEF MINOR TO MAJOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING 27 - 28 JUNE
WITH BRIEF STORM LEVELS POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES. FIELD ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE LAST
DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 JUNkuni 29 JUN
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 26 JUN 177 Prognoositud 27 JUN-29 JUN 170/165/165 90 päeva keskmine 26 JUN 185
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUN 011/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUN 020/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUN-29 JUN 015/020-015/017-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 JUN kuni 29 JUN
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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