Vaata arhiivi pühapäev, 6 veebruar 2000

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Feb 06 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 037 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 06 FEB 2000

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 05-2100Z kuni 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C2/SF FLARE FROM REGION 8858 (N27E40) WAS THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD. THIS REGION HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY MORE STABLE SINCE PRODUCING THE X1/3B MAJOR FLARE YESTERDAY. SOME NEW SPOTS WERE DETECTED BUT OVERALL, THE COMPLEXITY AND SIZE REMAINS THE SAME. SOME MINOR DEVELOPMENT WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 8861 (N07W27), WHICH PRODUCED MINOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY LATE IN THE PERIOD. OCCASIONAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO DETECTED IN REGION 8851 (N24W48). A PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED ERUPTING OFF THE SE LIMB AT 06/1650Z. NEW REGION 8862 (S04E75) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8858 RETAINS THE MOST POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY. ISOLATED LOW C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL SMALL REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THIS IS A CONTINUATION OF A DISTURBANCE THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY IN RESPONSE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS WITH MINOR STORMING PERIODS LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE EFFECTS OF THIS CORONAL HOLE RELATED DISTURBANCE SHOULD START SUBSIDING LATE ON DAY ONE. EXPECT MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS DURING DAYS TWO AND THREE. MATERIAL FROM YESTERDAY'S IMPRESSIVE X1/3B CORONAL MASS EJECTION ALL APPEARED TO BE EASTWARD BOUND FROM ITS SOURCE NEAR THE NE LIMB AND WILL LIKELY NOT EFFECT EARTH.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 07 FEBkuni 09 FEB
Klass M40%40%35%
Klass X15%15%10%
Prooton05%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       06 FEB 178
  Prognoositud   07 FEB-09 FEB  180/185/190
  90 päeva keskmine        06 FEB 173
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 FEB  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 FEB  017/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 FEB-09 FEB  015/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 07 FEB kuni 09 FEB
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne40%40%30%
Väike torm25%25%20%
Suur-tõsine torm05%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne50%50%40%
Väike torm30%30%20%
Suur-tõsine torm10%10%05%

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