Vaata arhiivi laupäev, 5 veebruar 2000

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Feb 05 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::: SDF number 036 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 FEB 2000

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH. REGION 8858 (N25E53) PRODUCED AN X1/3B MAJOR FLARE AT 05/1928Z. THIS FLARE HAD AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WITH 500 KM/S SHOCK SPEED AND MODERATE CENTIMETRIC BURSTS, INCLUDING A 350 SFU 10CM BURST. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED TO FOLLOW THESE EVENTS. THIS REGION WAS PRODUCING FREQUENT C-CLASS X-RAY ACTIVITY PRIOR TO THE MAJOR FLARE, THE LARGEST WAS A C7/SF AT 05/0830Z. THOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL AT APPROXIMATELY 200 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA, THIS REGION IS MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX WITH STRONG GRADIENTS AND IS STILL DEVELOPING. NOT MUCH CHANGE OBSERVED IN REGION 8851'S (N25W35) SIZE OR COMPLEXITY, BUT FREQUENT PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND OCCASIONAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES WERE NOTED. NEW REGION 8861 (N08W15) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY WITH AN ISOLATED M OR SMALL X-CLASS EVENT POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8858. ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS FROM THIS REGION IF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE ALSO LIKELY FROM REGION 8851. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH MINOR STORMING OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES LATE IN THE PERIOD. QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILED BEFORE 05/1449Z WHEN A SMALL BUT DISTINCT SHOCK WAS OBSERVED AT L1, MARKING THE ONSET OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOPSYNCHRONONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS AS WE FALL UNDER THE EFFECTS OF A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM. PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING ARE LIKELY AT HIGH LATITUDES. EXPECT THE FIELD TO RETURN TO MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY DAY THREE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 FEBkuni 08 FEB
Klass M50%50%40%
Klass X20%20%15%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       05 FEB 168
  Prognoositud   06 FEB-08 FEB  175/180/190
  90 päeva keskmine        05 FEB 174
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 FEB  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 FEB  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 FEB-08 FEB  015/015-012/015-010/009
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 FEB kuni 08 FEB
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne25%25%15%
Väike torm10%10%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%30%20%
Väike torm15%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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