Viendo archivo del viernes, 4 enero 2019
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2019 Jan 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 4 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Jan 2019IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (05 Jan, 06
Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (07 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 04/1837Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 04/1709Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
04/1953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 666 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (07 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Jan a 07 Jan
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Jan 072 Previsto 05 Jan-07 Jan 072/072/070 Media de 90 Días 04 Jan 070
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Jan 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Jan 007/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 018/024-012/015-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Jan a 07 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 60% | 25% |
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