Viendo archivo del viernes, 31 marzo 2017
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2017 Mar 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 90 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Mar 2017IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
31/1737Z from Region 2645 (S10E01). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Apr,
02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 771 km/s at 31/1103Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 31/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 31/0323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 24539 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Apr) and
unsettled to active levels on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Apr a 03 Apr
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 Mar 091 Previsto 01 Apr-03 Apr 093/095/095 Media de 90 Días 31 Mar 076
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Mar 018/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 Mar 021/031 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 019/025-019/022-014/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Apr a 03 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 30% | 15% |
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