Viendo archivo del lunes, 9 noviembre 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Nov 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 313 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Nov 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
09/1312Z from Region 2449 (S11E32). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov,
12 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 634 km/s at 09/2038Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 09/1926Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1448Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17885
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (11 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Nov a 12 Nov
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Nov 108 Previsto 10 Nov-12 Nov 105/110/110 Media de 90 Días 09 Nov 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Nov 011/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Nov 020/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 015/020-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Nov a 12 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 30% | 20% |
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