Viendo archivo del miércoles, 26 agosto 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Aug 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 238 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Aug 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
26/1353Z from Region 2403 (S16W44). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (27 Aug,
28 Aug) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (29 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
450 km/s at 26/0413Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 26/0837Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 26/1837Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 526 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Aug), unsettled to
active levels on day two (28 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (29 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (27 Aug, 28 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Aug a 29 Aug
| Clase M | 60% | 55% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Aug 126 Previsto 27 Aug-29 Aug 125/125/120 Media de 90 Días 26 Aug 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Aug 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Aug 020/028 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 016/016-013/018-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Aug a 29 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 40% | 30% |
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