Viendo archivo del jueves, 25 junio 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jun 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 176 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Jun 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
25/0816Z from Region 2371 (N12W53). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (26 Jun,
27 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (28 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 710 km/s at 25/0830Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 25/0819Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 25/0625Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7
pfu at 25/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 12360 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (27 Jun) and active to major storm levels
on day three (28 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day
one (26 Jun) and are expected to cross threshold on days two and three
(27 Jun, 28 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Jun a 28 Jun
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Protón | 80% | 95% | 95% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Jun 102 Previsto 26 Jun-28 Jun 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 25 Jun 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Jun 0NA/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Jun 022/031 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 013/015-025/045-037/060
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Jun a 28 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 25% | 25% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 79% | 79% |
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