Viendo archivo del martes, 27 enero 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jan 27 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 27 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Jan 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
27/0547Z from Region 2273 (S03W12). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
530 km/s at 27/1633Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 27/0526Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 27/0432Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 102 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (28 Jan) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Jan a 30 Jan
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Jan 158 Previsto 28 Jan-30 Jan 165/170/170 Media de 90 Días 27 Jan 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Jan 012/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Jan 011/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 008/010-011/012-014/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Jan a 30 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 40% | 45% |
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