Viendo archivo del viernes, 9 enero 2015
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2015 Jan 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 9 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jan 2015IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
09/0817Z from Region 2257 (N07W29). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
557 km/s at 09/0309Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/0327Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/0654Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 226 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jan,
11 Jan, 12 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jan a 12 Jan
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jan 151 Previsto 10 Jan-12 Jan 155/160/170 Media de 90 Días 09 Jan 158
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jan 015/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jan 009/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 010/010-009/012-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jan a 12 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 30% | 30% |
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