Viendo archivo del jueves, 13 noviembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Nov 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 317 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Nov 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
13/0607Z from Region 2209 (S15E62). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (14 Nov) and likely
to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and three
(15 Nov, 16 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 590 km/s at
13/0018Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/2107Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0814Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov)
and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15
Nov, 16 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Nov a 16 Nov
| Clase M | 60% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Nov 154 Previsto 14 Nov-16 Nov 165/180/180 Media de 90 Días 13 Nov 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Nov 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Nov 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/008-008/008-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Nov a 16 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 40% |
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