Viendo archivo del lunes, 10 noviembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Nov 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 314 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Nov 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
10/0222Z from Region 2205 (N14W08). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (11 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class
flares on days two and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 552 km/s at 10/1713Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 10/0201Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 09/2308Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Nov,
12 Nov, 13 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Nov a 13 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Nov 136 Previsto 11 Nov-13 Nov 140/165/180 Media de 90 Días 10 Nov 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Nov 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Nov 020/027 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 016/018-008/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Nov a 13 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 30% | 30% |
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