Viendo archivo del jueves, 4 septiembre 2014
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2014 Sep 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 247 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Sep 2014IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
04/1330Z from Region 2152 (S15W38). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(05 Sep, 06 Sep, 07 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
443 km/s at 03/2346Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/0221Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 04/0210Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at
04/1425Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2420 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Sep), unsettled to
active levels on day two (06 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (07 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Sep a 07 Sep
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Sep 146 Previsto 05 Sep-07 Sep 150/155/155 Media de 90 Días 04 Sep 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Sep 011/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Sep 009/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 007/010-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Sep a 07 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 25% |
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