Viendo archivo del sábado, 16 noviembre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Nov 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 320 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Nov 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
16/0749Z from Region 1900 (S19W42). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
579 km/s at 16/1307Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 16/0559Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 16/0629Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Nov, 18 Nov)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Nov a 19 Nov
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Nov 175 Previsto 17 Nov-19 Nov 175/175/170 Media de 90 Días 16 Nov 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Nov 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Nov 009/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 009/012-008/010-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Nov a 19 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 20% | 10% |
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