Viendo archivo del jueves, 19 septiembre 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 Sep 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 262 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Sep 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
19/0817Z from Region 1850 (N09E75). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Sep,
21 Sep, 22 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
600 km/s at 18/2127Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/2137Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0715Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 414 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Sep 108 Previsto 20 Sep-22 Sep 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 19 Sep 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 006/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Sep 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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