Viendo archivo del jueves, 23 mayo 2013
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2013 May 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 143 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 May 2013IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
23/1450Z from Region 1756 (S20E27). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (24 May, 25 May, 26 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
475 km/s at 23/1933Z, however ACE/SWEPAM data became suspect due to
proton contamination from the 22 May M5 flare. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
23/1656Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/0949Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1660 pfu at 23/0650Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 22/2105Z and the
event ended at 23/0745Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit were also suspect due to proton contamination.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (26 May). Protons are expected to remain above threshold on day
one (24 May), are likely to cross threshold on day two (25 May) and have
a chance of crossing threshold on day three (26 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 May a 26 May
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 99% | 70% | 30% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 May 135 Previsto 24 May-26 May 135/135/130 Media de 90 Días 23 May 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 May 010/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 May 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 011/015-014/020-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 May a 26 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 50% | 25% |
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