Viendo archivo del domingo, 11 noviembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Nov 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 316 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Nov 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
11/0233Z from newly numbered Region 1614(N15E72). There were two other
newly numbered regions on the disk as well: 1613 (S21E57) and 1615
(N09E61). A non-earth directed CME was observed off of the southwest
limb on LASCO C2 imagery at 10/2224Z and was associated with the
eruption of a large prominence. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low
with a chance for moderate levels on days one, two, and three (12 Nov,
13 Nov, 14 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 352 km/s at
11/2010Z. Total IMF reached 5.4 nT at 11/1104Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5.2 nT at 11/1150Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be initially quiet but is expected to become mostly active with a
chance for minor storm levels beginning about mid-day on day 1 (12 Nov)
and partway into day 2 (13 Nov) due to the arrival of the CMEs from
09/1524Z and 10/0539Z. Activity is expected to decrease to generally
unsettled levels on day 3 (14 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Nov a 14 Nov
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Nov 133 Previsto 12 Nov-14 Nov 135/140/145 Media de 90 Días 11 Nov 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Nov 001/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Nov 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 017/030-013/015-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Nov a 14 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 55% | 05% | 05% |
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