Viendo archivo del sábado, 10 noviembre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Nov 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 315 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Nov 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
10/0504Z from Region 1608 (S20W03) which was also associated with a
coronal mass ejection (CME). An additional CME was observed off the west
limb at 10/1448Z but was from a region on the backside and is not
earthward directed. A new unnumbered spot region is rotating onto the
disk from east limb at about S21. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot
regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class event on days one, two, and three (11
Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 337 km/s at
09/2104Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be quiet with a slight chance of unsettled levels on day one (11
Nov). The CMEs from 09/1524Z and 10/0539Z are expected to merge and
arrive on 12 Nov around 1200Z which will increase geomagnetic activity
to active levels with a chance for minor storm periods on days two and
three (12 Nov, 13 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Nov a 13 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Nov 122 Previsto 11 Nov-13 Nov 130/135/140 Media de 90 Días 10 Nov 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Nov 001/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Nov 002/002 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 007/007-017/030-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Nov a 13 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 55% | 05% |
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