Viendo archivo del lunes, 22 octubre 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Oct 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 296 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Oct 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 1598 (S10E60)
produced an M5/1f event at 22/1851Z. Region 1598 is the most
threatening region on the disk and appears to be a Beta magnetic
class. However, the proximity of Region 1598 to the East limb has
made the magnetic classification uncertain. Region 1596 (N07E20) is
also moderately sized and has some magnetic complexity, but only
managed to produce a small C-class event. The other regions on the
disk either remained stable or decayed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with occasional M-class flares, and a slight chance
for an isolated X-class flare for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speed, as measured at the ACE spacecraft, remained steady throughout
the day at approximately 375 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field ranged from +/-2 nT. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23 - 25 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Oct a 25 Oct
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Oct 156 Previsto 23 Oct-25 Oct 150/150/150 Media de 90 Días 22 Oct 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Oct 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Oct 002/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Oct a 25 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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