Viendo archivo del sábado, 28 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 210 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1532 (S22E49) produced
a M6/2n x-ray flare at 28/2056Z along with an associated Tenflare
(370 sfu), a Type II radio sweep with an estimated speed of 1387
km/s, and a Type IV radio sweep. Further analysis will be conducted
as more data becomes available. Newly numbered Region 1534 (N17E55)
was observed developing in the northeastern quadrant of the visible
disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with the chance for moderate levels for the next 3 days (29-31
July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at quiet levels before
increasing to unsettled levels after 28/1200Z due to extended
periods of southward Bz and possible weak coronal hole (CH) effects.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on days 1 and 2 (29-30 July) due
to CH effects, and recover to mostly quiet on day 3 (31 July) as
conditions wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Jul a 31 Jul
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Jul 127 Previsto 29 Jul-31 Jul 130/135/140 Media de 90 Días 28 Jul 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Jul 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Jul 008/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 024/015-024/010-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Jul a 31 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 01% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 45% | 01% |
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