Viendo archivo del miércoles, 25 julio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jul 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 207 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Jul 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Slight growth was
observed in Region 1526 (S17W00). The remainder of the disk and
limb was quiet and stable. A relatively slow moving CME
(approximate plane-of-sky speed of 350 km/s) was observed off the
southern limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 25/0236Z.
Correlations with STEREO-A COR2 imagery indicated ejecta movement
was slightly south of the ecliptic plane with a possible
Earth-directed component. This CME was likely the result of a small
filament eruption just south of central disk observed in H-alpha
imagery at approximately 24/2235Z. A preliminary WSA ENLIL model
run of the event indicated a weak impact early on 29 July.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
measured at the ACE spacecraft continued to decline from
approximately 500 km/s to 440 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux at geosynchronous orbit continued to be enhanced around 8 pfu.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 - 2 (26 - 27 July). By mid to
late on day 3 (28 July), a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream
is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position resulting in
unsettled to active conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Jul a 28 Jul
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Jul 105 Previsto 26 Jul-28 Jul 110/115/115 Media de 90 Días 25 Jul 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Jul 010/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Jul 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 006/005-006/005-011/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Jul a 28 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 30% |
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