Viendo archivo del sábado, 30 junio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 182 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Jun 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N17E17)
produced two impulsive M1 flares at 30/1252Z and 30/1832Z. Region
1514 (S15E15) produced several C-class events during the period.
Region 1515 (S16E30) continued to grow and is now an Ekc-type region
with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration and an area of 380
millionths.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares for the next three days (01-03
July).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was active during the past 24 hours due to
effects from the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) that arrived
in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Increased solar wind speeds, temperature and density were observed
at the ACE spacecraft around 30/0200Z along with an increase in
total field strength to approximately 10 nT. Density began to
decrease at approximately 30/1600Z while solar wind speeds continued
to increase (reaching 700 km/s at the time of this report)
indicating the transition from the CIR to the CH HSS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Solar activity is expected to
be unsettled to active during the next three days (01-03 July) with
a chance for isolated minor storm periods due to effects from the
favorably positioned CH HSS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jul a 03 Jul
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Jun 124 Previsto 01 Jul-03 Jul 125/125/130 Media de 90 Días 30 Jun 119
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Jun 006/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Jun 014/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 015/018-013/015-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jul a 03 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 35% | 35% |
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