Viendo archivo del lunes, 14 mayo 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 May 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 135 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 May 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N09W46) remains
the largest and most active complex on the solar disk, but has also
shown signs of decay. Two CMEs were observed off the east limb
during the period, but neither appears to have a potential earthward
component.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is forecast to be very
low to low during the period. A slight chance for an M-class flare
exists and will likely remain so, until Region 1476 either rotates
off the west limb or exhibits further decay.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with intermittent active
periods observed during nighttime (North America) hours. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on day 1 (15 May), with the
anticipated arrival of a CME observed on 12 May. Residual unsettled
conditions are possible on day 2 (16 May), before a full recovery to
mostly quiet conditions is forecast for day 3 (17 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 May a 17 May
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 May 130 Previsto 15 May-17 May 130/130/128 Media de 90 Días 14 May 114
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 May 010/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 May 007/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 010/012-008/008-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 May a 17 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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