Viendo archivo del sábado, 4 febrero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Feb 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 035 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Feb 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. A six degree
long filament eruption was visible in SDO/AIA 304 imagery, first
observed at about 03/2031Z. The filament was centered near N25W27,
just to the northeast of Region 1410 (N16W44). SOHO LASCO C2
imagery observed a slow-moving CME off the north limb of the disk,
first visible at 04/0836Z. At this time, the CME does not appear to
have an Earthward-directed component. New Region 1414 (S06W19)
emerged on the disk as a simple B-type beta group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (05 -
07 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels at middle latitudes
while active to minor storm periods were observed at high latitudes.
ACE satellite observations indicated a steady increase in wind
velocities through the period from about 400 km/s to near 460 km/s.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary
much beyond +/- 5 nT for the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (05 -
07 February).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Feb a 07 Feb
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Feb 107 Previsto 05 Feb-07 Feb 105/105/105 Media de 90 Días 04 Feb 140
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Feb 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 005/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Feb a 07 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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