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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 018 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jan 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. At 18/1912Z, an impulsive M1/1n was observed from Region 1401 (N16E27). At 18/1230Z, Region 1399 (S23E17) produced a B9 x-ray event. A slow-moving, partial-halo CME was seen lifting off the SSE limb, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 18/1325Z. Model output indicated the potential for Earth impact beginning late on 22 January. New Region 1407 (N17E13) emerged on the disk as a B-type group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a chance for M-class activity for the next three days (19 - 21 January).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decreased during the past 24 hours from a high of about 450 km/s to a low of near 375 km/s by the end of the period. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the majority of day one (19 January). By late on 19 January, and through day two (20 January), the field is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods. This increase in activity is due to anticipated effects from a glancing blow as a result of the 16 January CME. By day three (21 January), the field is expected return to mostly quiet levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jan a 21 Jan
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Jan 148
  Previsto   19 Jan-21 Jan  150/150/155
  Media de 90 Días        18 Jan 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jan  004/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  003/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  006/006-007/008-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jan a 21 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor15%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%15%10%

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