Viendo archivo del martes, 27 diciembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Dec 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 361 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Dec 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Regions 1386 (S18E22) and 1387 (S21W57) both have produced
multiple C-class events, with the largest being a C8/1f at 27/0422Z
from Region 1386. Associated with this event, was a non Earth
directed CME. Both Regions continue to grow and evolve as they
rotate across the disk. Region 1388 (S23E67) was numbered early in
the period as it rotated onto the east limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels for the next three days (28 - 30 December).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated periods of
minor storm levels on days one and two (28 - 29 December) with
multiple CME arrivals expected. A decrease in activity is expected
on day three (30 December) as CME effects wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Dec a 30 Dec
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Dec 140 Previsto 28 Dec-30 Dec 140/140/140 Media de 90 Días 27 Dec 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Dec 002/000 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Dec 000/000 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 012/018-014/022-011/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Dec a 30 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 40% | 20% |
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