Viendo archivo del domingo, 2 octubre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 275 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Oct 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Regions 1302 (N16W55) and
1305 (N12W26) both produced M-class events during the past 24 hours.
The largest was an M3/1n from Region 1305 at 02/0050Z that was
associated with an Earth-directed CME visible in STEREO imagery with
an estimated speed of 532 km/s. Region 1302 decreased significantly
in area but maintained a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
Region 1305 developed some intermediate spots but held steady in
area and is still considered to have a beta-gamma magnetic class.
Region 1309 (N23E67) was numbered yesterday and is a Dso type group
with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a slight chance for X-class activity for the next
three days (03-05 October) due to flare potential from Regions 1302
and 1305.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period during the 02/0900-1200Z synoptic period as measured by the
Boulder magnetometer. The increase in activity was due to effects
from a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (03-04 October) as
effects from the CH HSS subside. Day three (05 October) is expected
to begin with quiet to unsettled conditions. A chance for active
conditions and a slight chance for isolated minor storm periods is
expected later in the day due to effects from the combination of the
CMEs observed on 30 September and 01 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Oct 131 Previsto 03 Oct-05 Oct 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 02 Oct 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 012/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 005/005-005/005-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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