Viendo archivo del sábado, 19 febrero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Feb 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 050 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Feb 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1162 (N18W19)
produced an M1 event at 18/2104Z and several C-class events.
Regions 1158 (S19W78) and 1161 (N11W15) continued to produce C-class
events during the past 24 hours. NOTE: After further analysis based
on new images, the M6 event observed at 18/1011Z appears to have
originated from Region 1158 rather than Region 1162.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (20-22 February). All three
regions are capable of producing M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
due to residual effects from the CMEs associated with the M and
X-class events observed 13-15 February. The ACE spacecraft
indicated a steady decline in solar wind velocities from
approximately 600 km/s to 400 km/s during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (20-22
February).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Feb a 22 Feb
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Feb 109 Previsto 20 Feb-22 Feb 110/110/105 Media de 90 Días 19 Feb 086
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Feb 015/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Feb a 22 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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