Viendo archivo del lunes, 18 enero 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Jan 18 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 018 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jan 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1040 (N26W83) produced a
C2.1 flare at 17/2233Z. An uncorrelated C4.9 flare occurred at
18/2039Z. Region 1040 was classified early today as a Dho-beta group
with four spots. Sunspot observations decayed as Region 1040
continued to rotate off the west limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible. There remains a
slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet on day one (19 January). Quiet to
unsettled levels, with isolated active conditions at high latitudes,
are expected on day 2 (20 January) as a coronal hole moves into a
geoeffective position. Predominantly quiet levels are expected to
return on day three (21 January).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jan a 21 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Jan 082 Previsto 19 Jan-21 Jan 082/082/082 Media de 90 Días 18 Jan 077
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jan 001/001 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Jan 002/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 005/005-010/010-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jan a 21 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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