Viendo archivo del domingo, 17 diciembre 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Dec 17 2203 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 351 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Dec 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been low. There was a single
C-class, long duration flare at approximately 17/1711Z apparently
from Region 930 (S06W88). A slow moving CME from the SW limb
occurred with very similar timing and may be associated with this
flare. Given the position and slow speed of this CME, it is not
expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 18 and 19. On
December 20 the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to
active due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a
geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Dec a 20 Dec
| Clase M | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Dec 081 Previsto 18 Dec-20 Dec 075/075/075 Media de 90 Días 17 Dec 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Dec 010/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Dec 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 004/005-004/005-006/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Dec a 20 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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