Viendo archivo del jueves, 14 diciembre 2006
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2006 Dec 14 2258 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 348 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Dec 2006IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 930 (S05W47) continues
to exhibit a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. The region is
showing a possible gradual separation of penumbra in its Delta area.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Isolated X-class flares from Region 930 remains a
possibility.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field reached major to severe storm levels. The ACE
satellite observed the shock from the 13 December CME at 14/1356
UTC. A sudden impulse was observed at the Boulder magnetometer at
14/1416 UTC with a deviation of 26 nT. Periods of major to severe
storming occurred between 14/1200 UTC and 14/1800 UTC. Solar wind
speed is currently 900 km/s. A 100 MeV proton event commenced at
13/0300 UTC, reached maximum at 13/0525 UTC with 88.7 pfu and ended
at 14/1150 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event that started 13/0310
UTC is still in progress with a current level of 21.7 pfu. The
greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from active to major storm levels for 15 December.
This activity is due to the CME observed on 13 December. Unsettled
to active conditions are expected for 16 and 17 December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Dec a 17 Dec
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Protón | 99% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Dec 093 Previsto 15 Dec-17 Dec 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 14 Dec 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Dec 040/070 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 040/045-012/020-008/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Dec a 17 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 10% | 10% |
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