Viendo archivo del viernes, 16 septiembre 2005
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2005 Sep 16 2204 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 259 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Sep 2005IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 808
(S11W37) produced three M-class flares. The largest of these was an
M4.4/1b flare at 16/0149 UTC. The area of Region 808 has decayed to
approximately 620 millionths; however, the region still exhibits a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active levels
were the result of the high solar wind speeds early in the UTC day.
The solar wind speed declined over the past 24 hours from about 750
km/s to about 625 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that
began at 08/0215 UTC and reached a maximum of 1880 pfu at 11/0425
UTC ended at 16/0025 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Sep a 19 Sep
| Clase M | 70% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Sep 112 Previsto 17 Sep-19 Sep 110/110/105 Media de 90 Días 16 Sep 093
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Sep 022/043 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Sep 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 008/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Sep a 19 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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