Viendo archivo de lunes, 16 agosto 2004

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Aug 16 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 229 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Aug 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels today. Region 656 (S13W61) was limited to a single M-class flare during the period, an M1/Sf that occurred at 16/0347Z. A long duration C9/Sf event occurred at 16/1338Z which produced a very faint CME that does not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 656 underwent little change in spot area. The region remains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic complex although the delta structure in the intermediate spot cluster has weakened over the period. Region 661 (N07E34) was quiescent throughout the period but is worthy of note due to the small delta magnetic structure that has developed in the southern most part of the dominant trailing spot. A partial halo CME was observed mostly on the northwest solar limb which appears to be a backsided event. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels through 17 and 18 August. Activity should begin to diminish on 19 August as Region 656 transits the western solar limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A slight chance for isolated active conditions throughout the period exists due to the weak CME activity seen during the past several days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Aug a 19 Aug
Clase M75%75%50%
Clase X20%20%05%
Protón10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 Aug 134
  Previsto   17 Aug-19 Aug  130/125/115
  Media de 90 Días        16 Aug 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 15 Aug  003/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 16 Aug  003/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  008/008-008/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Aug a 19 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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