Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 agosto 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Aug 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 228 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Aug 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels today. Region 656
(S13W48) produced multiple M-class flares again today, the largest
was an M9/1n that occurred at 15/1241Z that had an associated faint
CME seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery emanating from the southwest solar
quadrant. This CME does not appear to be Earth-directed. Sun spot
area showed a slight increase from yesterday and the
beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure has undergone little change over
the past 24 hours. The remainder of the active regions were
quiescent throughout the period. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 656 remains capable of producing
isolated major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions may occur throughout the period due to the
potential of weak flanking blows from the CME activity observed over
the past couple days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Aug 139 Previsto 16 Aug-18 Aug 135/135/130 Media de 90 Días 15 Aug 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 006/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Aug 004/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Aug a 18 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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